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Neural Foundry's avatar

The orographic lift explainer really hits difernet when paired with those snowpack maps. What dunno many people realize is that warm snow droughts fundamentally change runoff timing even more than dry ones, since the precipitation still falls but becomes rain instead of stored water. Had a project last year involving reservoir management and the predictive models basically break down when the freeze line jumps 2000 feet higher than expected. The marine heatwave connection to jet stream position makes sense too, ocean temp anomolies can lock in patterns for weeks.

Mitch Tobin's avatar

Thanks for sharing this interesting info. The transition from snow to rain is definitely changing the region's hydrology. If you’re interested, I wrote an earlier post about research projecting climate change will shrink the share of Western runoff that comes from the snowpack: https://www.snow.news/p/how-much-runoff-comes-from-snowpack

McKay Edwards's avatar

Forests "choked with excess fuel" is missing the point. The issue is drought and climate change which is stressing the forests and making wildfire more dangerous. The "excess fuel" myth is promulgated by timber industry and climate deniers. Unsubscribing.

Mitch Tobin's avatar

More than a century of aggressive fire suppression has, in fact, increased fuel loads in many Western forests, especially in ecosystems that naturally burned more frequently. This has been well established in the peer-reviewed literature. That doesn’t negate the role of climate change and drought, which are clearly worsening fire weather and lengthening fire seasons. Both factors matter. It's not either/or.